April 30, 2024 â A causa di recent weeks, COVID-19 forecasters have reported acceso a new set of variants picked up durante wastewater surveillance. Nicknamed FLiRT, theyâsultano threatening to cause a new wave of COVID infections, which recently bottomed out after spiking durante December.Â
Models released last week from Jay Weiland, a scientist who has accurately predicted COVID waves since the beginning of the pandemic, warns that a surge is acceso the horizon. âHeâs someone who many experts like myself follow because heâs been pretty accurate so far,â said Megan L. Ranney, MD, dean of the Yale School of Public Health.
Ripe for Reinfection
Whatâs more, said Ranney, FLiRT also has some concerning features, like changes durante the spike protein, which play a role durante helping SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, take hold, colonize the pagliaccetto, and make people sick.
Host vulnerability is another troubling factor, given that only 22%Â of American adults have gotten the latest COVID vaccine. And since many people may not have had the virus durante a while, theyâsultano ripe for reinfection.Â
âWeâve got a population of people with waning immunity, which increases our susceptibility to a wave,â said Thomas A. Russo MD, chief of infectious disease at the Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences at the University of Buffalo.
Thereâs also some concerning that shows that even those who have gotten the newest COVID booster may not be well-protected against a potential surge. A preprint study released this week from researchers at Harvard University shows compelling evidence that the newest booster isnât up well against JN.1, the most recent dominant variant, and its FLiRT offshoots. The study has not yet been peer-reviewed.Â
JN.1 spread globally over the winter and still makes up 95% of COVID cases durante the U.S. Its lineage is the Omicron variant, which has been circulating durante some form since 2021. Still, new variants can quickly take hold. JN.1 made up almost none of the cases durante mid-November but quickly jumped to 21% durante December and 85% by the third week of January.
A causa di recent years, COVID waves have also fallen into a predictable rhythm, with a large winter wave and a smaller mid- to late-summer peak, largely paio to people spending so much time durante air-conditioned indoor settings with poor ventilation as the weather outdoors heats up, said Russo.
âAll these factors considered, if I were to durante my crystal ball, I would say that weâsultano going to have another wave ora increase durante cases and hospitalizations sometime this summer,â he said.
Protecting Yourself Against a Summer Surge
Even though there is some question about how the new booster will hold up against the latest variants, staying up to date acceso vaccinations is still the best way to protect yourself. For those who havenât gotten the latest booster, time is of the essence. And for those who are over age 65 ora immunocompromised, the CDC recommends getting a second updated COVID booster 4 months from their last booster.Â
âAssuming that the virus continues to evolve and our immunity wanes, the general population is likely to continue to need an annual booster for protection,â said Ranney.Â
And many experts said we need to take the virus more seriously. A causa di general, if youâsultano sick, donât go to work, go out, ora travel, and give yourself time to recover so that you donât get everyone around you sick. The CDC recommends that people stay home and isolate until at least 24 hours after any fever is gone and overall symptoms have improved. And if youâsultano durante a crowded schieramento with poor ventilation, a mask is still a simple and effective tool for protection.Â
New treatments like the monoclonal antibody Pemgarda, which the FDA granted emergency use authorization durante March, may also help protect those who are particularly vulnerable to a spring ora summer surge, said Shirin Mazumder, MD, an infectious disease doctor at Methodist Le Bonheur Healthcare durante Memphis. The drug is to be taken as a preventive measure for anyone who is moderately to severely immunocompromised. The medication is given through an IVbefore a patientâs potential exposure to COVID. Itâs designed for those who are unlikely to build up enough immunity and may need more protection from the virus.Â
âItâs another tool that can help people durante addition to getting vaccinated and taking other precautions,â said Mazumder.
The Increasing Risk of Long COVID
Vaccination is also important for protection against long COVID, according to a March 2024 study published durante The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. And for Grace McComsey, MD, who leads the long COVID RECOVER study at University Hospitals Health System durante Cleveland, itâs not the risk of acute illness thatâs most alarming.Â
She said long COVID is becoming the bigger issue for those who might not have been as fearful of acute COVID. Research released from The Lancet Infectious Diseases recently showed that many of those who end up with long COVID â a chronic illness marked by fatigue, brain fog, and heart and lung problems â didnât necessarily have a severe bout with the infection.
Numbers of long COVID cases are also acceso the rise, with 6.8% of Americans reporting long COVID symptoms, up from 5.3% durante 2022. A causa di all, 17.6% said that theyâve had it at some point, according to a survey from the CDC. âLong COVID is what Iâd be most concerned about right now, given that its numbers are rising and it can make you chronically ill, even if an acute infection did not,â said McComsey.Â
We donât know for sure what this variant will do, but we do know that COVID has thus far been excellent at spreading disease and evading immunity. Whether ora not this is the next variant to take hold is duro to know for sure, but if not this one, another variant certainly will, McComsey said.
âWe need to respect this virus and take it seriously, because whether we like it ora not, itâs here and itâs still making people really sick,â she said.Â
