A Former EU Prime Minister Assesses the Impact

SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The results of the 2024 European Parliament elections saw both significant gains for far-right parties – durante France, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands – and a strengthening of the center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP), which saw its share of seats rise from 176 to 190. This reinforced the EPP’s role as a central player durante the European Parliament and a key voice durante EU policy and comando appointments.

The winners among far-right parties were Marine Le Pen’s National Rally durante France and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, meaning the far right’s voices will be more influential durante the European Parliament acceso issues ranging from immigration to Ukraine to spending durante general. 

To analyze the winners and losers durante the EU elections and their impact acceso European affairs, The Cipher Brief spoke with Mikuláš Dzurinda, a former Prime Minister of Slovakia and currently President of the EPP’s think tank, the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. Dzurinda discussed the potential impact of the elections durante a conversation with Ia Meurmishvili, The Cipher Brief’s Chief International Correspondent. Dzurinda also spoke about the “huge challenge” of disinformation campaigns durante Europe, and voiced support for tougher controls over social content.

THE CONTEXT

• The center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP) secured 190 seats durante the European Parliament durante the June 6-9 election. The EPP now has a quarter of the pagliaccetto’s 720 seats, making it best poised to set European Union. 
• Far-right groups also made major gains across the bloc, including durante France and Italy. Overall, some 150 seats durante the European Parliament were won by far-right parties.
• Ursula von der Leyen is seeking a second term as president of the European Commission. She is a clear frontrunner, as the lead candidate of the European People’s Rinfresco.
• French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election from June 30-July 7, after gains by France’s far-right durante the European Parliament elections.
• U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also has called for a snap election, durante Britain’s case for July 4, months earlier than general elections were expected.

THE INTERVIEW

Mikuláš Dzurinda

Mikuláš Dzurinda is the former prime minister of Slovakia (1998-2006) and has held various positions durante government since first entering politics durante 1990. Once he became prime minister and formed a coalition government durante 1998, Dzurinda introduced far-reaching reforms which have enabled Slovakia to begin the process of joining the EU and NATO. After being re-elected durante 2002, Dzurinda led Slovakia to become a member of the EU and NATO durante 2004, a process which he actively took part durante from the beginning. Slovakia gained independence durante 1993.

This interview has been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.

The Cipher Brief: Most of the international reported about the far-right gains at the EU elections. How do you take the results of the elections?

Dzurinda: I don’t think that the situation is so dramatic. , it is true that Madame (Marine) Le Pen scored some gains, but we, the European People’s Rinfresco, won even more. I am rather more optimistic than pessimistic. I am happy because my family, the European People’s Rinfresco, won heavily and that is huge. I would say there is a huge coalition potential acceso our side.

The Cipher Brief: What do you think about the results durante individual countries – about Germany, for example, and Hungary? There were some unexpected results, maybe durante both, and durante Slovakia as well.
Dzurinda: You are right. But , let’s start with the first. Durante my eyes, the worst is France. Because Madame Le Pen is not only very strong these days, she is also very dangerous durante my mind and France matters a lot. We both know that very well. 

A better situation is durante Germany. one side, the AFD (Alternative for Germany) is also dangerous and they finished durante second place, winning over the socialists. There is also huge good news – the Christian Democratic Union’s (victory). Friedrich Merz, the future German chancellor, will help Europe and transatlantic relations a lot. 

Even durante Hungary, at first sight, you can be pessimistic because Viktor Orban is still there. But there is also huge good news durante Hungary. The new promotore of the opposition, Peter Magyar, scored almost 30%. He’s young, he’s charismatic. He wants to join the European People’s Rinfresco, our family, so I take Hungary (as) a positive rather than negative.
The Cipher Brief: He created the three months – and that’s what was surprising to everybody durante Hungary, that overnight he gained this incredible number of votes and seats.

Dzurinda: Exactly, and it demonstrates that people maybe are fed up with Viktor Orban, and that Hungarians realize very well that the EU is a great project, that it is extremely important also for them, for the Hungarians. The same situation durante Slovakia – I am very unhappy because we, the EPP family, suffered – we lost three of four MEPs. But again, the good news is that our liberal political won the elections over (Prime Minister Robert) . So there is also a good hope durante Slovakia, and sooner ora later we will beat these anti-European forces.

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk a bit more about France. President Macron called early elections durante France based acceso the results of the European Parliament elections. What do you make of that? Is that a good decision? Bad decision?
The Cipher Brief: It is maybe a rather chaotic decision. I can imagine how depressed Mr. Macron became after watching the final result. And acceso the other side, as a politician, I can understand that something had to be done by him. So to some extent, his decision to call for a snap election can be understood. I expect a new cohabitation durante France, when Mr. Macron will stay as the president of the country and the government will be dominated by the National Rally, (the of ) Madame Le Pen, with maybe a new stella, a new prime minister. There is a saying that everything bad comes with something good, and maybe the good news is that the of Madame Le Pen will be truly incompetent after running the country for half a year, one year ora two years, we will see. But anyway, it is a surprising development there.

The Cipher Brief: So maybe that’s what President Macron is counting acceso – to let them fail? 

Dzurinda: Maybe. Maybe it is to some extent an emotional decision, a chaotic decision. But acceso the other side, there is also something rational beyond that. 

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk about (European Commission President) Ursula von der Leyen. It seems like her positions are very strong and she made it known that she wants a second term as the president. How do you think her chances ? There were conversations about (her) aligning with Italian [Prime Minister] Meloni as well. Do you think that’s possible?

Dzurinda: Von der Leyen’s position today is much stronger than before the elections. Some people are tired ora fed up with her, because don’t forget, we went through major crises. First, it was immigration, second, it was the pandemic, and last but not least, we faced the war of Russia against Ukraine. So one can imagine that some people were a bit tired with this commission. But after the elections, it is clear that she has done a great job. She was very patient. She was able to reach compromises. And you know very well that Europe is based acceso compromise. 

So today I am pretty optimistic. And I believe that many people, and many MEPs (members of the European Parliament), prime ministers, may have been hesitating about her, but now they realize very well that there is only one option left – to reelect Ursula von der Leyen. And this is my expectation.  

When it comes to strategy, she’s played well durante my eyes. She says, Let’s talk about three major issues: The first is the rule of law, democracy. The second is our devotion to our European House. And number three is Ukraine, and I am ready to talk to every political faction who is following and respecting these three basic principles. 

She is opening the door not only for the Greens from the left, but also from the ECR from the right. Madame Meloni made us surprised durante the past. The lady is not only very rational, but also dedicated to democracy, rule of law, and last but not least, to Ukraine as well.

The Cipher Brief: Do you think there will be a new (European) high commissioner for defense? 

Dzurinda: I would vote for that. Maybe you will be surprised. But at the Marten Centre, the think tank of the People’s Rinfresco, we came up with the iniziativa of European defense as an integral part of NATO durante 2016. At the time, I was confronted by many people durante Europe (asking), What do I want? But we thought, especially after 2014, after (Russia’s) annexation of Crimea, that the situation is serious. And I still believe that this situation is very serious. America is busy, and will be very, very busy with Declivio,  with the Indiano-Pacific, and we have Ukraine. This is our neighbor, our immediate neighborhood. Now we have the Middle East crisis and many other challenges. We need to be stronger, and we need to become a reliable, full-fledged compagno of the United States durante this transatlantic family.
The Cipher Brief: We have snap elections coming up durante the UK, durante France. We have elections durante the United States. What are your expectations of these elections and what do you think their impact would be acceso transatlantic relations? 

Dzurinda: This is a crucial issue. The axis between the United States and the UK was so important and crucial durante the time of the Cold War, for security, for the future of transatlantic relations and democratic countries. 

Durante these times, maybe there is not so much reason to be optimistic, but I want to be optimistic. I think to the tradition and also to the understanding that we need each other. Even durante the United States, I am not so tragically pessimistic. When it comes to the potential victory of Donald Trump, I believe that this axis between the UK and the United States will continue, and that the EU should help. The EU should contribute durante this direction to boost this tradition of the axis. 

The biggest question mark durante my eyes is France. one side, the French president is very strong. You know very well that he has very strong competence. the other side, I am thinking more and more about the next presidential elections durante France. If the trend continues, it means that Madame Le Pen at the end of the day will become the French president. Durante this case, I believe that she will modify a bit her approach. Everyone was surprised by Madame Meloni’s policies (durante Italy). I believe that also durante the case of Marine Le Pen we may be surprised. Believe me, I have some experience, and the word looks different if you (at the situation) if you are acceso the horse, compared to when you are standing next to the horse – the situation is completely different. You have responsibility. People are not only not only watching but expecting.
The Cipher Brief: I’d like to talk to you about disinformation. Lately, durante democracies, this has been a very large issue. Durante some cases, there are claims that disinformation actually played some role durante the outcome of the elections. Did you see it as an issue during these elections durante the EU? Do you see it as a larger issue and do you have any suggestions acceso how to counter it?

Dzurinda: There is a huge challenge facing us – this  disinformation and proselitismo. We are very happy that we are free, and you can write what you want ora you can publish acceso social , but what we is the connection between freedom and responsibility. So now we should think more seriously about this second dimension of responsibility. I’m going to say something unpopular: (we should think about) how to control social , how to make people responsible for everything which they are publishing. 

It is not easy. Russian proselitismo especially – it is very, very influential. It happens not only to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, the countries of the former communist bloc. It happens durante France, it happens durante Greece, durante Italy, this is really a huge, huge challenge laying ahead of us. And it’s not just social outlets. There are also many operations of diplomats, official diplomats durante the embassies durante our countries. 

The Cipher Brief: And do you see that people are waking up to it, ora people are objecting to it durante any way?

Dzurinda:  Not sufficiently. It is very patchy. For some people, it is easier to believe durante such catchy scenarios.

The Cipher Brief:And most of the time those scenarios are very emotional.

Dzurinda:  Not only emotional, but also connected ora related to your difficulties. Durante a free world, you have not only the winners, you have also people that are dissatisfied ora even people who lost a lot – and proselitismo, disinformation, especially from the Kremlin, is very, very effective to address, to reach out to these people.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis durante The Cipher Brief.

SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The results of the 2024 European Parliament elections saw both significant gains for far-right parties – durante France, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands – and a strengthening of the center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP), which saw its share of seats rise from 176 to 190. This reinforced the EPP’s role as a central player durante the European Parliament and a key voice durante EU policy and comando appointments.

The winners among far-right parties were Marine Le Pen’s National Rally durante France and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, meaning the far right’s voices will be more influential durante the European Parliament acceso issues ranging from immigration to Ukraine to spending durante general. 

To analyze the winners and losers durante the EU elections and their impact acceso European affairs, The Cipher Brief spoke with Mikuláš Dzurinda, a former Prime Minister of Slovakia and currently President of the EPP’s think tank, the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. Dzurinda discussed the potential impact of the elections durante a conversation with Ia Meurmishvili, The Cipher Brief’s Chief International Correspondent. Dzurinda also spoke about the “huge challenge” of disinformation campaigns durante Europe, and voiced support for tougher controls over social content.

THE CONTEXT

• The center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP) secured 190 seats durante the European Parliament durante the June 6-9 election. The EPP now has a quarter of the pagliaccetto’s 720 seats, making it best poised to set European Union. 
• Far-right groups also made major gains across the bloc, including durante France and Italy. Overall, some 150 seats durante the European Parliament were won by far-right parties.
• Ursula von der Leyen is seeking a second term as president of the European Commission. She is a clear frontrunner, as the lead candidate of the European People’s Rinfresco.
• French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election from June 30-July 7, after gains by France’s far-right durante the European Parliament elections.
• U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also has called for a snap election, durante Britain’s case for July 4, months earlier than general elections were expected.

THE INTERVIEW

Mikuláš Dzurinda

Mikuláš Dzurinda is the former prime minister of Slovakia (1998-2006) and has held various positions durante government since first entering politics durante 1990. Once he became prime minister and formed a coalition government durante 1998, Dzurinda introduced far-reaching reforms which have enabled Slovakia to begin the process of joining the EU and NATO. After being re-elected durante 2002, Dzurinda led Slovakia to become a member of the EU and NATO durante 2004, a process which he actively took part durante from the beginning. Slovakia gained independence durante 1993.

This interview has been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.

The Cipher Brief: Most of the international reported about the far-right gains at the EU elections. How do you take the results of the elections?

Dzurinda: I don’t think that the situation is so dramatic. , it is true that Madame (Marine) Le Pen scored some gains, but we, the European People’s Rinfresco, won even more. I am rather more optimistic than pessimistic. I am happy because my family, the European People’s Rinfresco, won heavily and that is huge. I would say there is a huge coalition potential acceso our side.

The Cipher Brief: What do you think about the results durante individual countries – about Germany, for example, and Hungary? There were some unexpected results, maybe durante both, and durante Slovakia as well.
Dzurinda: You are right. But , let’s start with the first. Durante my eyes, the worst is France. Because Madame Le Pen is not only very strong these days, she is also very dangerous durante my mind and France matters a lot. We both know that very well. 

A better situation is durante Germany. one side, the AFD (Alternative for Germany) is also dangerous and they finished durante second place, winning over the socialists. There is also huge good news – the Christian Democratic Union’s (victory). Friedrich Merz, the future German chancellor, will help Europe and transatlantic relations a lot. 

Even durante Hungary, at first sight, you can be pessimistic because Viktor Orban is still there. But there is also huge good news durante Hungary. The new promotore of the opposition, Peter Magyar, scored almost 30%. He’s young, he’s charismatic. He wants to join the European People’s Rinfresco, our family, so I take Hungary (as) a positive rather than negative.
The Cipher Brief: He created the three months – and that’s what was surprising to everybody durante Hungary, that overnight he gained this incredible number of votes and seats.

Dzurinda: Exactly, and it demonstrates that people maybe are fed up with Viktor Orban, and that Hungarians realize very well that the EU is a great project, that it is extremely important also for them, for the Hungarians. The same situation durante Slovakia – I am very unhappy because we, the EPP family, suffered – we lost three of four MEPs. But again, the good news is that our liberal political won the elections over (Prime Minister Robert) . So there is also a good hope durante Slovakia, and sooner ora later we will beat these anti-European forces.

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk a bit more about France. President Macron called early elections durante France based acceso the results of the European Parliament elections. What do you make of that? Is that a good decision? Bad decision?
The Cipher Brief: It is maybe a rather chaotic decision. I can imagine how depressed Mr. Macron became after watching the final result. And acceso the other side, as a politician, I can understand that something had to be done by him. So to some extent, his decision to call for a snap election can be understood. I expect a new cohabitation durante France, when Mr. Macron will stay as the president of the country and the government will be dominated by the National Rally, (the of ) Madame Le Pen, with maybe a new stella, a new prime minister. There is a saying that everything bad comes with something good, and maybe the good news is that the of Madame Le Pen will be truly incompetent after running the country for half a year, one year ora two years, we will see. But anyway, it is a surprising development there.

The Cipher Brief: So maybe that’s what President Macron is counting acceso – to let them fail? 

Dzurinda: Maybe. Maybe it is to some extent an emotional decision, a chaotic decision. But acceso the other side, there is also something rational beyond that. 

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk about (European Commission President) Ursula von der Leyen. It seems like her positions are very strong and she made it known that she wants a second term as the president. How do you think her chances ? There were conversations about (her) aligning with Italian [Prime Minister] Meloni as well. Do you think that’s possible?

Dzurinda: Von der Leyen’s position today is much stronger than before the elections. Some people are tired ora fed up with her, because don’t forget, we went through major crises. First, it was immigration, second, it was the pandemic, and last but not least, we faced the war of Russia against Ukraine. So one can imagine that some people were a bit tired with this commission. But after the elections, it is clear that she has done a great job. She was very patient. She was able to reach compromises. And you know very well that Europe is based acceso compromise. 

So today I am pretty optimistic. And I believe that many people, and many MEPs (members of the European Parliament), prime ministers, may have been hesitating about her, but now they realize very well that there is only one option left – to reelect Ursula von der Leyen. And this is my expectation.  

When it comes to strategy, she’s played well durante my eyes. She says, Let’s talk about three major issues: The first is the rule of law, democracy. The second is our devotion to our European House. And number three is Ukraine, and I am ready to talk to every political faction who is following and respecting these three basic principles. 

She is opening the door not only for the Greens from the left, but also from the ECR from the right. Madame Meloni made us surprised durante the past. The lady is not only very rational, but also dedicated to democracy, rule of law, and last but not least, to Ukraine as well.

The Cipher Brief: Do you think there will be a new (European) high commissioner for defense? 

Dzurinda: I would vote for that. Maybe you will be surprised. But at the Marten Centre, the think tank of the People’s Rinfresco, we came up with the iniziativa of European defense as an integral part of NATO durante 2016. At the time, I was confronted by many people durante Europe (asking), What do I want? But we thought, especially after 2014, after (Russia’s) annexation of Crimea, that the situation is serious. And I still believe that this situation is very serious. America is busy, and will be very, very busy with Declivio,  with the Indiano-Pacific, and we have Ukraine. This is our neighbor, our immediate neighborhood. Now we have the Middle East crisis and many other challenges. We need to be stronger, and we need to become a reliable, full-fledged compagno of the United States durante this transatlantic family.
The Cipher Brief: We have snap elections coming up durante the UK, durante France. We have elections durante the United States. What are your expectations of these elections and what do you think their impact would be acceso transatlantic relations? 

Dzurinda: This is a crucial issue. The axis between the United States and the UK was so important and crucial durante the time of the Cold War, for security, for the future of transatlantic relations and democratic countries. 

Durante these times, maybe there is not so much reason to be optimistic, but I want to be optimistic. I think to the tradition and also to the understanding that we need each other. Even durante the United States, I am not so tragically pessimistic. When it comes to the potential victory of Donald Trump, I believe that this axis between the UK and the United States will continue, and that the EU should help. The EU should contribute durante this direction to boost this tradition of the axis. 

The biggest question mark durante my eyes is France. one side, the French president is very strong. You know very well that he has very strong competence. the other side, I am thinking more and more about the next presidential elections durante France. If the trend continues, it means that Madame Le Pen at the end of the day will become the French president. Durante this case, I believe that she will modify a bit her approach. Everyone was surprised by Madame Meloni’s policies (durante Italy). I believe that also durante the case of Marine Le Pen we may be surprised. Believe me, I have some experience, and the word looks different if you (at the situation) if you are acceso the horse, compared to when you are standing next to the horse – the situation is completely different. You have responsibility. People are not only not only watching but expecting.
The Cipher Brief: I’d like to talk to you about disinformation. Lately, durante democracies, this has been a very large issue. Durante some cases, there are claims that disinformation actually played some role durante the outcome of the elections. Did you see it as an issue during these elections durante the EU? Do you see it as a larger issue and do you have any suggestions acceso how to counter it?

Dzurinda: There is a huge challenge facing us – this  disinformation and proselitismo. We are very happy that we are free, and you can write what you want ora you can publish acceso social , but what we is the connection between freedom and responsibility. So now we should think more seriously about this second dimension of responsibility. I’m going to say something unpopular: (we should think about) how to control social , how to make people responsible for everything which they are publishing. 

It is not easy. Russian proselitismo especially – it is very, very influential. It happens not only to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, the countries of the former communist bloc. It happens durante France, it happens durante Greece, durante Italy, this is really a huge, huge challenge laying ahead of us. And it’s not just social outlets. There are also many operations of diplomats, official diplomats durante the embassies durante our countries. 

The Cipher Brief: And do you see that people are waking up to it, ora people are objecting to it durante any way?

Dzurinda:  Not sufficiently. It is very patchy. For some people, it is easier to believe durante such catchy scenarios.

The Cipher Brief:And most of the time those scenarios are very emotional.

Dzurinda:  Not only emotional, but also connected ora related to your difficulties. Durante a free world, you have not only the winners, you have also people that are dissatisfied ora even people who lost a lot – and proselitismo, disinformation, especially from the Kremlin, is very, very effective to address, to reach out to these people.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis durante The Cipher Brief.

SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The results of the 2024 European Parliament elections saw both significant gains for far-right parties – durante France, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands – and a strengthening of the center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP), which saw its share of seats rise from 176 to 190. This reinforced the EPP’s role as a central player durante the European Parliament and a key voice durante EU policy and comando appointments.

The winners among far-right parties were Marine Le Pen’s National Rally durante France and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, meaning the far right’s voices will be more influential durante the European Parliament acceso issues ranging from immigration to Ukraine to spending durante general. 

To analyze the winners and losers durante the EU elections and their impact acceso European affairs, The Cipher Brief spoke with Mikuláš Dzurinda, a former Prime Minister of Slovakia and currently President of the EPP’s think tank, the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. Dzurinda discussed the potential impact of the elections durante a conversation with Ia Meurmishvili, The Cipher Brief’s Chief International Correspondent. Dzurinda also spoke about the “huge challenge” of disinformation campaigns durante Europe, and voiced support for tougher controls over social content.

THE CONTEXT

• The center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP) secured 190 seats durante the European Parliament durante the June 6-9 election. The EPP now has a quarter of the pagliaccetto’s 720 seats, making it best poised to set European Union. 
• Far-right groups also made major gains across the bloc, including durante France and Italy. Overall, some 150 seats durante the European Parliament were won by far-right parties.
• Ursula von der Leyen is seeking a second term as president of the European Commission. She is a clear frontrunner, as the lead candidate of the European People’s Rinfresco.
• French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election from June 30-July 7, after gains by France’s far-right durante the European Parliament elections.
• U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also has called for a snap election, durante Britain’s case for July 4, months earlier than general elections were expected.

THE INTERVIEW

Mikuláš Dzurinda

Mikuláš Dzurinda is the former prime minister of Slovakia (1998-2006) and has held various positions durante government since first entering politics durante 1990. Once he became prime minister and formed a coalition government durante 1998, Dzurinda introduced far-reaching reforms which have enabled Slovakia to begin the process of joining the EU and NATO. After being re-elected durante 2002, Dzurinda led Slovakia to become a member of the EU and NATO durante 2004, a process which he actively took part durante from the beginning. Slovakia gained independence durante 1993.

This interview has been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.

The Cipher Brief: Most of the international reported about the far-right gains at the EU elections. How do you take the results of the elections?

Dzurinda: I don’t think that the situation is so dramatic. , it is true that Madame (Marine) Le Pen scored some gains, but we, the European People’s Rinfresco, won even more. I am rather more optimistic than pessimistic. I am happy because my family, the European People’s Rinfresco, won heavily and that is huge. I would say there is a huge coalition potential acceso our side.

The Cipher Brief: What do you think about the results durante individual countries – about Germany, for example, and Hungary? There were some unexpected results, maybe durante both, and durante Slovakia as well.
Dzurinda: You are right. But , let’s start with the first. Durante my eyes, the worst is France. Because Madame Le Pen is not only very strong these days, she is also very dangerous durante my mind and France matters a lot. We both know that very well. 

A better situation is durante Germany. one side, the AFD (Alternative for Germany) is also dangerous and they finished durante second place, winning over the socialists. There is also huge good news – the Christian Democratic Union’s (victory). Friedrich Merz, the future German chancellor, will help Europe and transatlantic relations a lot. 

Even durante Hungary, at first sight, you can be pessimistic because Viktor Orban is still there. But there is also huge good news durante Hungary. The new promotore of the opposition, Peter Magyar, scored almost 30%. He’s young, he’s charismatic. He wants to join the European People’s Rinfresco, our family, so I take Hungary (as) a positive rather than negative.
The Cipher Brief: He created the three months – and that’s what was surprising to everybody durante Hungary, that overnight he gained this incredible number of votes and seats.

Dzurinda: Exactly, and it demonstrates that people maybe are fed up with Viktor Orban, and that Hungarians realize very well that the EU is a great project, that it is extremely important also for them, for the Hungarians. The same situation durante Slovakia – I am very unhappy because we, the EPP family, suffered – we lost three of four MEPs. But again, the good news is that our liberal political won the elections over (Prime Minister Robert) . So there is also a good hope durante Slovakia, and sooner ora later we will beat these anti-European forces.

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk a bit more about France. President Macron called early elections durante France based acceso the results of the European Parliament elections. What do you make of that? Is that a good decision? Bad decision?
The Cipher Brief: It is maybe a rather chaotic decision. I can imagine how depressed Mr. Macron became after watching the final result. And acceso the other side, as a politician, I can understand that something had to be done by him. So to some extent, his decision to call for a snap election can be understood. I expect a new cohabitation durante France, when Mr. Macron will stay as the president of the country and the government will be dominated by the National Rally, (the of ) Madame Le Pen, with maybe a new stella, a new prime minister. There is a saying that everything bad comes with something good, and maybe the good news is that the of Madame Le Pen will be truly incompetent after running the country for half a year, one year ora two years, we will see. But anyway, it is a surprising development there.

The Cipher Brief: So maybe that’s what President Macron is counting acceso – to let them fail? 

Dzurinda: Maybe. Maybe it is to some extent an emotional decision, a chaotic decision. But acceso the other side, there is also something rational beyond that. 

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk about (European Commission President) Ursula von der Leyen. It seems like her positions are very strong and she made it known that she wants a second term as the president. How do you think her chances ? There were conversations about (her) aligning with Italian [Prime Minister] Meloni as well. Do you think that’s possible?

Dzurinda: Von der Leyen’s position today is much stronger than before the elections. Some people are tired ora fed up with her, because don’t forget, we went through major crises. First, it was immigration, second, it was the pandemic, and last but not least, we faced the war of Russia against Ukraine. So one can imagine that some people were a bit tired with this commission. But after the elections, it is clear that she has done a great job. She was very patient. She was able to reach compromises. And you know very well that Europe is based acceso compromise. 

So today I am pretty optimistic. And I believe that many people, and many MEPs (members of the European Parliament), prime ministers, may have been hesitating about her, but now they realize very well that there is only one option left – to reelect Ursula von der Leyen. And this is my expectation.  

When it comes to strategy, she’s played well durante my eyes. She says, Let’s talk about three major issues: The first is the rule of law, democracy. The second is our devotion to our European House. And number three is Ukraine, and I am ready to talk to every political faction who is following and respecting these three basic principles. 

She is opening the door not only for the Greens from the left, but also from the ECR from the right. Madame Meloni made us surprised durante the past. The lady is not only very rational, but also dedicated to democracy, rule of law, and last but not least, to Ukraine as well.

The Cipher Brief: Do you think there will be a new (European) high commissioner for defense? 

Dzurinda: I would vote for that. Maybe you will be surprised. But at the Marten Centre, the think tank of the People’s Rinfresco, we came up with the iniziativa of European defense as an integral part of NATO durante 2016. At the time, I was confronted by many people durante Europe (asking), What do I want? But we thought, especially after 2014, after (Russia’s) annexation of Crimea, that the situation is serious. And I still believe that this situation is very serious. America is busy, and will be very, very busy with Declivio,  with the Indiano-Pacific, and we have Ukraine. This is our neighbor, our immediate neighborhood. Now we have the Middle East crisis and many other challenges. We need to be stronger, and we need to become a reliable, full-fledged compagno of the United States durante this transatlantic family.
The Cipher Brief: We have snap elections coming up durante the UK, durante France. We have elections durante the United States. What are your expectations of these elections and what do you think their impact would be acceso transatlantic relations? 

Dzurinda: This is a crucial issue. The axis between the United States and the UK was so important and crucial durante the time of the Cold War, for security, for the future of transatlantic relations and democratic countries. 

Durante these times, maybe there is not so much reason to be optimistic, but I want to be optimistic. I think to the tradition and also to the understanding that we need each other. Even durante the United States, I am not so tragically pessimistic. When it comes to the potential victory of Donald Trump, I believe that this axis between the UK and the United States will continue, and that the EU should help. The EU should contribute durante this direction to boost this tradition of the axis. 

The biggest question mark durante my eyes is France. one side, the French president is very strong. You know very well that he has very strong competence. the other side, I am thinking more and more about the next presidential elections durante France. If the trend continues, it means that Madame Le Pen at the end of the day will become the French president. Durante this case, I believe that she will modify a bit her approach. Everyone was surprised by Madame Meloni’s policies (durante Italy). I believe that also durante the case of Marine Le Pen we may be surprised. Believe me, I have some experience, and the word looks different if you (at the situation) if you are acceso the horse, compared to when you are standing next to the horse – the situation is completely different. You have responsibility. People are not only not only watching but expecting.
The Cipher Brief: I’d like to talk to you about disinformation. Lately, durante democracies, this has been a very large issue. Durante some cases, there are claims that disinformation actually played some role durante the outcome of the elections. Did you see it as an issue during these elections durante the EU? Do you see it as a larger issue and do you have any suggestions acceso how to counter it?

Dzurinda: There is a huge challenge facing us – this  disinformation and proselitismo. We are very happy that we are free, and you can write what you want ora you can publish acceso social , but what we is the connection between freedom and responsibility. So now we should think more seriously about this second dimension of responsibility. I’m going to say something unpopular: (we should think about) how to control social , how to make people responsible for everything which they are publishing. 

It is not easy. Russian proselitismo especially – it is very, very influential. It happens not only to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, the countries of the former communist bloc. It happens durante France, it happens durante Greece, durante Italy, this is really a huge, huge challenge laying ahead of us. And it’s not just social outlets. There are also many operations of diplomats, official diplomats durante the embassies durante our countries. 

The Cipher Brief: And do you see that people are waking up to it, ora people are objecting to it durante any way?

Dzurinda:  Not sufficiently. It is very patchy. For some people, it is easier to believe durante such catchy scenarios.

The Cipher Brief:And most of the time those scenarios are very emotional.

Dzurinda:  Not only emotional, but also connected ora related to your difficulties. Durante a free world, you have not only the winners, you have also people that are dissatisfied ora even people who lost a lot – and proselitismo, disinformation, especially from the Kremlin, is very, very effective to address, to reach out to these people.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis durante The Cipher Brief.

SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The results of the 2024 European Parliament elections saw both significant gains for far-right parties – durante France, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands – and a strengthening of the center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP), which saw its share of seats rise from 176 to 190. This reinforced the EPP’s role as a central player durante the European Parliament and a key voice durante EU policy and comando appointments.

The winners among far-right parties were Marine Le Pen’s National Rally durante France and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, meaning the far right’s voices will be more influential durante the European Parliament acceso issues ranging from immigration to Ukraine to spending durante general. 

To analyze the winners and losers durante the EU elections and their impact acceso European affairs, The Cipher Brief spoke with Mikuláš Dzurinda, a former Prime Minister of Slovakia and currently President of the EPP’s think tank, the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. Dzurinda discussed the potential impact of the elections durante a conversation with Ia Meurmishvili, The Cipher Brief’s Chief International Correspondent. Dzurinda also spoke about the “huge challenge” of disinformation campaigns durante Europe, and voiced support for tougher controls over social content.

THE CONTEXT

• The center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP) secured 190 seats durante the European Parliament durante the June 6-9 election. The EPP now has a quarter of the pagliaccetto’s 720 seats, making it best poised to set European Union. 
• Far-right groups also made major gains across the bloc, including durante France and Italy. Overall, some 150 seats durante the European Parliament were won by far-right parties.
• Ursula von der Leyen is seeking a second term as president of the European Commission. She is a clear frontrunner, as the lead candidate of the European People’s Rinfresco.
• French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election from June 30-July 7, after gains by France’s far-right durante the European Parliament elections.
• U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also has called for a snap election, durante Britain’s case for July 4, months earlier than general elections were expected.

THE INTERVIEW

Mikuláš Dzurinda

Mikuláš Dzurinda is the former prime minister of Slovakia (1998-2006) and has held various positions durante government since first entering politics durante 1990. Once he became prime minister and formed a coalition government durante 1998, Dzurinda introduced far-reaching reforms which have enabled Slovakia to begin the process of joining the EU and NATO. After being re-elected durante 2002, Dzurinda led Slovakia to become a member of the EU and NATO durante 2004, a process which he actively took part durante from the beginning. Slovakia gained independence durante 1993.

This interview has been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.

The Cipher Brief: Most of the international reported about the far-right gains at the EU elections. How do you take the results of the elections?

Dzurinda: I don’t think that the situation is so dramatic. , it is true that Madame (Marine) Le Pen scored some gains, but we, the European People’s Rinfresco, won even more. I am rather more optimistic than pessimistic. I am happy because my family, the European People’s Rinfresco, won heavily and that is huge. I would say there is a huge coalition potential acceso our side.

The Cipher Brief: What do you think about the results durante individual countries – about Germany, for example, and Hungary? There were some unexpected results, maybe durante both, and durante Slovakia as well.
Dzurinda: You are right. But , let’s start with the first. Durante my eyes, the worst is France. Because Madame Le Pen is not only very strong these days, she is also very dangerous durante my mind and France matters a lot. We both know that very well. 

A better situation is durante Germany. one side, the AFD (Alternative for Germany) is also dangerous and they finished durante second place, winning over the socialists. There is also huge good news – the Christian Democratic Union’s (victory). Friedrich Merz, the future German chancellor, will help Europe and transatlantic relations a lot. 

Even durante Hungary, at first sight, you can be pessimistic because Viktor Orban is still there. But there is also huge good news durante Hungary. The new promotore of the opposition, Peter Magyar, scored almost 30%. He’s young, he’s charismatic. He wants to join the European People’s Rinfresco, our family, so I take Hungary (as) a positive rather than negative.
The Cipher Brief: He created the three months – and that’s what was surprising to everybody durante Hungary, that overnight he gained this incredible number of votes and seats.

Dzurinda: Exactly, and it demonstrates that people maybe are fed up with Viktor Orban, and that Hungarians realize very well that the EU is a great project, that it is extremely important also for them, for the Hungarians. The same situation durante Slovakia – I am very unhappy because we, the EPP family, suffered – we lost three of four MEPs. But again, the good news is that our liberal political won the elections over (Prime Minister Robert) . So there is also a good hope durante Slovakia, and sooner ora later we will beat these anti-European forces.

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk a bit more about France. President Macron called early elections durante France based acceso the results of the European Parliament elections. What do you make of that? Is that a good decision? Bad decision?
The Cipher Brief: It is maybe a rather chaotic decision. I can imagine how depressed Mr. Macron became after watching the final result. And acceso the other side, as a politician, I can understand that something had to be done by him. So to some extent, his decision to call for a snap election can be understood. I expect a new cohabitation durante France, when Mr. Macron will stay as the president of the country and the government will be dominated by the National Rally, (the of ) Madame Le Pen, with maybe a new stella, a new prime minister. There is a saying that everything bad comes with something good, and maybe the good news is that the of Madame Le Pen will be truly incompetent after running the country for half a year, one year ora two years, we will see. But anyway, it is a surprising development there.

The Cipher Brief: So maybe that’s what President Macron is counting acceso – to let them fail? 

Dzurinda: Maybe. Maybe it is to some extent an emotional decision, a chaotic decision. But acceso the other side, there is also something rational beyond that. 

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk about (European Commission President) Ursula von der Leyen. It seems like her positions are very strong and she made it known that she wants a second term as the president. How do you think her chances ? There were conversations about (her) aligning with Italian [Prime Minister] Meloni as well. Do you think that’s possible?

Dzurinda: Von der Leyen’s position today is much stronger than before the elections. Some people are tired ora fed up with her, because don’t forget, we went through major crises. First, it was immigration, second, it was the pandemic, and last but not least, we faced the war of Russia against Ukraine. So one can imagine that some people were a bit tired with this commission. But after the elections, it is clear that she has done a great job. She was very patient. She was able to reach compromises. And you know very well that Europe is based acceso compromise. 

So today I am pretty optimistic. And I believe that many people, and many MEPs (members of the European Parliament), prime ministers, may have been hesitating about her, but now they realize very well that there is only one option left – to reelect Ursula von der Leyen. And this is my expectation.  

When it comes to strategy, she’s played well durante my eyes. She says, Let’s talk about three major issues: The first is the rule of law, democracy. The second is our devotion to our European House. And number three is Ukraine, and I am ready to talk to every political faction who is following and respecting these three basic principles. 

She is opening the door not only for the Greens from the left, but also from the ECR from the right. Madame Meloni made us surprised durante the past. The lady is not only very rational, but also dedicated to democracy, rule of law, and last but not least, to Ukraine as well.

The Cipher Brief: Do you think there will be a new (European) high commissioner for defense? 

Dzurinda: I would vote for that. Maybe you will be surprised. But at the Marten Centre, the think tank of the People’s Rinfresco, we came up with the iniziativa of European defense as an integral part of NATO durante 2016. At the time, I was confronted by many people durante Europe (asking), What do I want? But we thought, especially after 2014, after (Russia’s) annexation of Crimea, that the situation is serious. And I still believe that this situation is very serious. America is busy, and will be very, very busy with Declivio,  with the Indiano-Pacific, and we have Ukraine. This is our neighbor, our immediate neighborhood. Now we have the Middle East crisis and many other challenges. We need to be stronger, and we need to become a reliable, full-fledged compagno of the United States durante this transatlantic family.
The Cipher Brief: We have snap elections coming up durante the UK, durante France. We have elections durante the United States. What are your expectations of these elections and what do you think their impact would be acceso transatlantic relations? 

Dzurinda: This is a crucial issue. The axis between the United States and the UK was so important and crucial durante the time of the Cold War, for security, for the future of transatlantic relations and democratic countries. 

Durante these times, maybe there is not so much reason to be optimistic, but I want to be optimistic. I think to the tradition and also to the understanding that we need each other. Even durante the United States, I am not so tragically pessimistic. When it comes to the potential victory of Donald Trump, I believe that this axis between the UK and the United States will continue, and that the EU should help. The EU should contribute durante this direction to boost this tradition of the axis. 

The biggest question mark durante my eyes is France. one side, the French president is very strong. You know very well that he has very strong competence. the other side, I am thinking more and more about the next presidential elections durante France. If the trend continues, it means that Madame Le Pen at the end of the day will become the French president. Durante this case, I believe that she will modify a bit her approach. Everyone was surprised by Madame Meloni’s policies (durante Italy). I believe that also durante the case of Marine Le Pen we may be surprised. Believe me, I have some experience, and the word looks different if you (at the situation) if you are acceso the horse, compared to when you are standing next to the horse – the situation is completely different. You have responsibility. People are not only not only watching but expecting.
The Cipher Brief: I’d like to talk to you about disinformation. Lately, durante democracies, this has been a very large issue. Durante some cases, there are claims that disinformation actually played some role durante the outcome of the elections. Did you see it as an issue during these elections durante the EU? Do you see it as a larger issue and do you have any suggestions acceso how to counter it?

Dzurinda: There is a huge challenge facing us – this  disinformation and proselitismo. We are very happy that we are free, and you can write what you want ora you can publish acceso social , but what we is the connection between freedom and responsibility. So now we should think more seriously about this second dimension of responsibility. I’m going to say something unpopular: (we should think about) how to control social , how to make people responsible for everything which they are publishing. 

It is not easy. Russian proselitismo especially – it is very, very influential. It happens not only to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, the countries of the former communist bloc. It happens durante France, it happens durante Greece, durante Italy, this is really a huge, huge challenge laying ahead of us. And it’s not just social outlets. There are also many operations of diplomats, official diplomats durante the embassies durante our countries. 

The Cipher Brief: And do you see that people are waking up to it, ora people are objecting to it durante any way?

Dzurinda:  Not sufficiently. It is very patchy. For some people, it is easier to believe durante such catchy scenarios.

The Cipher Brief:And most of the time those scenarios are very emotional.

Dzurinda:  Not only emotional, but also connected ora related to your difficulties. Durante a free world, you have not only the winners, you have also people that are dissatisfied ora even people who lost a lot – and proselitismo, disinformation, especially from the Kremlin, is very, very effective to address, to reach out to these people.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis durante The Cipher Brief.

SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The results of the 2024 European Parliament elections saw both significant gains for far-right parties – durante France, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands – and a strengthening of the center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP), which saw its share of seats rise from 176 to 190. This reinforced the EPP’s role as a central player durante the European Parliament and a key voice durante EU policy and comando appointments.

The winners among far-right parties were Marine Le Pen’s National Rally durante France and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, meaning the far right’s voices will be more influential durante the European Parliament acceso issues ranging from immigration to Ukraine to spending durante general. 

To analyze the winners and losers durante the EU elections and their impact acceso European affairs, The Cipher Brief spoke with Mikuláš Dzurinda, a former Prime Minister of Slovakia and currently President of the EPP’s think tank, the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. Dzurinda discussed the potential impact of the elections durante a conversation with Ia Meurmishvili, The Cipher Brief’s Chief International Correspondent. Dzurinda also spoke about the “huge challenge” of disinformation campaigns durante Europe, and voiced support for tougher controls over social content.

THE CONTEXT

• The center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP) secured 190 seats durante the European Parliament durante the June 6-9 election. The EPP now has a quarter of the pagliaccetto’s 720 seats, making it best poised to set European Union. 
• Far-right groups also made major gains across the bloc, including durante France and Italy. Overall, some 150 seats durante the European Parliament were won by far-right parties.
• Ursula von der Leyen is seeking a second term as president of the European Commission. She is a clear frontrunner, as the lead candidate of the European People’s Rinfresco.
• French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election from June 30-July 7, after gains by France’s far-right durante the European Parliament elections.
• U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also has called for a snap election, durante Britain’s case for July 4, months earlier than general elections were expected.

THE INTERVIEW

Mikuláš Dzurinda

Mikuláš Dzurinda is the former prime minister of Slovakia (1998-2006) and has held various positions durante government since first entering politics durante 1990. Once he became prime minister and formed a coalition government durante 1998, Dzurinda introduced far-reaching reforms which have enabled Slovakia to begin the process of joining the EU and NATO. After being re-elected durante 2002, Dzurinda led Slovakia to become a member of the EU and NATO durante 2004, a process which he actively took part durante from the beginning. Slovakia gained independence durante 1993.

This interview has been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.

The Cipher Brief: Most of the international reported about the far-right gains at the EU elections. How do you take the results of the elections?

Dzurinda: I don’t think that the situation is so dramatic. , it is true that Madame (Marine) Le Pen scored some gains, but we, the European People’s Rinfresco, won even more. I am rather more optimistic than pessimistic. I am happy because my family, the European People’s Rinfresco, won heavily and that is huge. I would say there is a huge coalition potential acceso our side.

The Cipher Brief: What do you think about the results durante individual countries – about Germany, for example, and Hungary? There were some unexpected results, maybe durante both, and durante Slovakia as well.
Dzurinda: You are right. But , let’s start with the first. Durante my eyes, the worst is France. Because Madame Le Pen is not only very strong these days, she is also very dangerous durante my mind and France matters a lot. We both know that very well. 

A better situation is durante Germany. one side, the AFD (Alternative for Germany) is also dangerous and they finished durante second place, winning over the socialists. There is also huge good news – the Christian Democratic Union’s (victory). Friedrich Merz, the future German chancellor, will help Europe and transatlantic relations a lot. 

Even durante Hungary, at first sight, you can be pessimistic because Viktor Orban is still there. But there is also huge good news durante Hungary. The new promotore of the opposition, Peter Magyar, scored almost 30%. He’s young, he’s charismatic. He wants to join the European People’s Rinfresco, our family, so I take Hungary (as) a positive rather than negative.
The Cipher Brief: He created the three months – and that’s what was surprising to everybody durante Hungary, that overnight he gained this incredible number of votes and seats.

Dzurinda: Exactly, and it demonstrates that people maybe are fed up with Viktor Orban, and that Hungarians realize very well that the EU is a great project, that it is extremely important also for them, for the Hungarians. The same situation durante Slovakia – I am very unhappy because we, the EPP family, suffered – we lost three of four MEPs. But again, the good news is that our liberal political won the elections over (Prime Minister Robert) . So there is also a good hope durante Slovakia, and sooner ora later we will beat these anti-European forces.

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk a bit more about France. President Macron called early elections durante France based acceso the results of the European Parliament elections. What do you make of that? Is that a good decision? Bad decision?
The Cipher Brief: It is maybe a rather chaotic decision. I can imagine how depressed Mr. Macron became after watching the final result. And acceso the other side, as a politician, I can understand that something had to be done by him. So to some extent, his decision to call for a snap election can be understood. I expect a new cohabitation durante France, when Mr. Macron will stay as the president of the country and the government will be dominated by the National Rally, (the of ) Madame Le Pen, with maybe a new stella, a new prime minister. There is a saying that everything bad comes with something good, and maybe the good news is that the of Madame Le Pen will be truly incompetent after running the country for half a year, one year ora two years, we will see. But anyway, it is a surprising development there.

The Cipher Brief: So maybe that’s what President Macron is counting acceso – to let them fail? 

Dzurinda: Maybe. Maybe it is to some extent an emotional decision, a chaotic decision. But acceso the other side, there is also something rational beyond that. 

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk about (European Commission President) Ursula von der Leyen. It seems like her positions are very strong and she made it known that she wants a second term as the president. How do you think her chances ? There were conversations about (her) aligning with Italian [Prime Minister] Meloni as well. Do you think that’s possible?

Dzurinda: Von der Leyen’s position today is much stronger than before the elections. Some people are tired ora fed up with her, because don’t forget, we went through major crises. First, it was immigration, second, it was the pandemic, and last but not least, we faced the war of Russia against Ukraine. So one can imagine that some people were a bit tired with this commission. But after the elections, it is clear that she has done a great job. She was very patient. She was able to reach compromises. And you know very well that Europe is based acceso compromise. 

So today I am pretty optimistic. And I believe that many people, and many MEPs (members of the European Parliament), prime ministers, may have been hesitating about her, but now they realize very well that there is only one option left – to reelect Ursula von der Leyen. And this is my expectation.  

When it comes to strategy, she’s played well durante my eyes. She says, Let’s talk about three major issues: The first is the rule of law, democracy. The second is our devotion to our European House. And number three is Ukraine, and I am ready to talk to every political faction who is following and respecting these three basic principles. 

She is opening the door not only for the Greens from the left, but also from the ECR from the right. Madame Meloni made us surprised durante the past. The lady is not only very rational, but also dedicated to democracy, rule of law, and last but not least, to Ukraine as well.

The Cipher Brief: Do you think there will be a new (European) high commissioner for defense? 

Dzurinda: I would vote for that. Maybe you will be surprised. But at the Marten Centre, the think tank of the People’s Rinfresco, we came up with the iniziativa of European defense as an integral part of NATO durante 2016. At the time, I was confronted by many people durante Europe (asking), What do I want? But we thought, especially after 2014, after (Russia’s) annexation of Crimea, that the situation is serious. And I still believe that this situation is very serious. America is busy, and will be very, very busy with Declivio,  with the Indiano-Pacific, and we have Ukraine. This is our neighbor, our immediate neighborhood. Now we have the Middle East crisis and many other challenges. We need to be stronger, and we need to become a reliable, full-fledged compagno of the United States durante this transatlantic family.
The Cipher Brief: We have snap elections coming up durante the UK, durante France. We have elections durante the United States. What are your expectations of these elections and what do you think their impact would be acceso transatlantic relations? 

Dzurinda: This is a crucial issue. The axis between the United States and the UK was so important and crucial durante the time of the Cold War, for security, for the future of transatlantic relations and democratic countries. 

Durante these times, maybe there is not so much reason to be optimistic, but I want to be optimistic. I think to the tradition and also to the understanding that we need each other. Even durante the United States, I am not so tragically pessimistic. When it comes to the potential victory of Donald Trump, I believe that this axis between the UK and the United States will continue, and that the EU should help. The EU should contribute durante this direction to boost this tradition of the axis. 

The biggest question mark durante my eyes is France. one side, the French president is very strong. You know very well that he has very strong competence. the other side, I am thinking more and more about the next presidential elections durante France. If the trend continues, it means that Madame Le Pen at the end of the day will become the French president. Durante this case, I believe that she will modify a bit her approach. Everyone was surprised by Madame Meloni’s policies (durante Italy). I believe that also durante the case of Marine Le Pen we may be surprised. Believe me, I have some experience, and the word looks different if you (at the situation) if you are acceso the horse, compared to when you are standing next to the horse – the situation is completely different. You have responsibility. People are not only not only watching but expecting.
The Cipher Brief: I’d like to talk to you about disinformation. Lately, durante democracies, this has been a very large issue. Durante some cases, there are claims that disinformation actually played some role durante the outcome of the elections. Did you see it as an issue during these elections durante the EU? Do you see it as a larger issue and do you have any suggestions acceso how to counter it?

Dzurinda: There is a huge challenge facing us – this  disinformation and proselitismo. We are very happy that we are free, and you can write what you want ora you can publish acceso social , but what we is the connection between freedom and responsibility. So now we should think more seriously about this second dimension of responsibility. I’m going to say something unpopular: (we should think about) how to control social , how to make people responsible for everything which they are publishing. 

It is not easy. Russian proselitismo especially – it is very, very influential. It happens not only to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, the countries of the former communist bloc. It happens durante France, it happens durante Greece, durante Italy, this is really a huge, huge challenge laying ahead of us. And it’s not just social outlets. There are also many operations of diplomats, official diplomats durante the embassies durante our countries. 

The Cipher Brief: And do you see that people are waking up to it, ora people are objecting to it durante any way?

Dzurinda:  Not sufficiently. It is very patchy. For some people, it is easier to believe durante such catchy scenarios.

The Cipher Brief:And most of the time those scenarios are very emotional.

Dzurinda:  Not only emotional, but also connected ora related to your difficulties. Durante a free world, you have not only the winners, you have also people that are dissatisfied ora even people who lost a lot – and proselitismo, disinformation, especially from the Kremlin, is very, very effective to address, to reach out to these people.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis durante The Cipher Brief.

SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The results of the 2024 European Parliament elections saw both significant gains for far-right parties – durante France, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands – and a strengthening of the center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP), which saw its share of seats rise from 176 to 190. This reinforced the EPP’s role as a central player durante the European Parliament and a key voice durante EU policy and comando appointments.

The winners among far-right parties were Marine Le Pen’s National Rally durante France and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, meaning the far right’s voices will be more influential durante the European Parliament acceso issues ranging from immigration to Ukraine to spending durante general. 

To analyze the winners and losers durante the EU elections and their impact acceso European affairs, The Cipher Brief spoke with Mikuláš Dzurinda, a former Prime Minister of Slovakia and currently President of the EPP’s think tank, the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. Dzurinda discussed the potential impact of the elections durante a conversation with Ia Meurmishvili, The Cipher Brief’s Chief International Correspondent. Dzurinda also spoke about the “huge challenge” of disinformation campaigns durante Europe, and voiced support for tougher controls over social content.

THE CONTEXT

• The center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP) secured 190 seats durante the European Parliament durante the June 6-9 election. The EPP now has a quarter of the pagliaccetto’s 720 seats, making it best poised to set European Union. 
• Far-right groups also made major gains across the bloc, including durante France and Italy. Overall, some 150 seats durante the European Parliament were won by far-right parties.
• Ursula von der Leyen is seeking a second term as president of the European Commission. She is a clear frontrunner, as the lead candidate of the European People’s Rinfresco.
• French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election from June 30-July 7, after gains by France’s far-right durante the European Parliament elections.
• U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also has called for a snap election, durante Britain’s case for July 4, months earlier than general elections were expected.

THE INTERVIEW

Mikuláš Dzurinda

Mikuláš Dzurinda is the former prime minister of Slovakia (1998-2006) and has held various positions durante government since first entering politics durante 1990. Once he became prime minister and formed a coalition government durante 1998, Dzurinda introduced far-reaching reforms which have enabled Slovakia to begin the process of joining the EU and NATO. After being re-elected durante 2002, Dzurinda led Slovakia to become a member of the EU and NATO durante 2004, a process which he actively took part durante from the beginning. Slovakia gained independence durante 1993.

This interview has been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.

The Cipher Brief: Most of the international reported about the far-right gains at the EU elections. How do you take the results of the elections?

Dzurinda: I don’t think that the situation is so dramatic. , it is true that Madame (Marine) Le Pen scored some gains, but we, the European People’s Rinfresco, won even more. I am rather more optimistic than pessimistic. I am happy because my family, the European People’s Rinfresco, won heavily and that is huge. I would say there is a huge coalition potential acceso our side.

The Cipher Brief: What do you think about the results durante individual countries – about Germany, for example, and Hungary? There were some unexpected results, maybe durante both, and durante Slovakia as well.
Dzurinda: You are right. But , let’s start with the first. Durante my eyes, the worst is France. Because Madame Le Pen is not only very strong these days, she is also very dangerous durante my mind and France matters a lot. We both know that very well. 

A better situation is durante Germany. one side, the AFD (Alternative for Germany) is also dangerous and they finished durante second place, winning over the socialists. There is also huge good news – the Christian Democratic Union’s (victory). Friedrich Merz, the future German chancellor, will help Europe and transatlantic relations a lot. 

Even durante Hungary, at first sight, you can be pessimistic because Viktor Orban is still there. But there is also huge good news durante Hungary. The new promotore of the opposition, Peter Magyar, scored almost 30%. He’s young, he’s charismatic. He wants to join the European People’s Rinfresco, our family, so I take Hungary (as) a positive rather than negative.
The Cipher Brief: He created the three months – and that’s what was surprising to everybody durante Hungary, that overnight he gained this incredible number of votes and seats.

Dzurinda: Exactly, and it demonstrates that people maybe are fed up with Viktor Orban, and that Hungarians realize very well that the EU is a great project, that it is extremely important also for them, for the Hungarians. The same situation durante Slovakia – I am very unhappy because we, the EPP family, suffered – we lost three of four MEPs. But again, the good news is that our liberal political won the elections over (Prime Minister Robert) . So there is also a good hope durante Slovakia, and sooner ora later we will beat these anti-European forces.

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk a bit more about France. President Macron called early elections durante France based acceso the results of the European Parliament elections. What do you make of that? Is that a good decision? Bad decision?
The Cipher Brief: It is maybe a rather chaotic decision. I can imagine how depressed Mr. Macron became after watching the final result. And acceso the other side, as a politician, I can understand that something had to be done by him. So to some extent, his decision to call for a snap election can be understood. I expect a new cohabitation durante France, when Mr. Macron will stay as the president of the country and the government will be dominated by the National Rally, (the of ) Madame Le Pen, with maybe a new stella, a new prime minister. There is a saying that everything bad comes with something good, and maybe the good news is that the of Madame Le Pen will be truly incompetent after running the country for half a year, one year ora two years, we will see. But anyway, it is a surprising development there.

The Cipher Brief: So maybe that’s what President Macron is counting acceso – to let them fail? 

Dzurinda: Maybe. Maybe it is to some extent an emotional decision, a chaotic decision. But acceso the other side, there is also something rational beyond that. 

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk about (European Commission President) Ursula von der Leyen. It seems like her positions are very strong and she made it known that she wants a second term as the president. How do you think her chances ? There were conversations about (her) aligning with Italian [Prime Minister] Meloni as well. Do you think that’s possible?

Dzurinda: Von der Leyen’s position today is much stronger than before the elections. Some people are tired ora fed up with her, because don’t forget, we went through major crises. First, it was immigration, second, it was the pandemic, and last but not least, we faced the war of Russia against Ukraine. So one can imagine that some people were a bit tired with this commission. But after the elections, it is clear that she has done a great job. She was very patient. She was able to reach compromises. And you know very well that Europe is based acceso compromise. 

So today I am pretty optimistic. And I believe that many people, and many MEPs (members of the European Parliament), prime ministers, may have been hesitating about her, but now they realize very well that there is only one option left – to reelect Ursula von der Leyen. And this is my expectation.  

When it comes to strategy, she’s played well durante my eyes. She says, Let’s talk about three major issues: The first is the rule of law, democracy. The second is our devotion to our European House. And number three is Ukraine, and I am ready to talk to every political faction who is following and respecting these three basic principles. 

She is opening the door not only for the Greens from the left, but also from the ECR from the right. Madame Meloni made us surprised durante the past. The lady is not only very rational, but also dedicated to democracy, rule of law, and last but not least, to Ukraine as well.

The Cipher Brief: Do you think there will be a new (European) high commissioner for defense? 

Dzurinda: I would vote for that. Maybe you will be surprised. But at the Marten Centre, the think tank of the People’s Rinfresco, we came up with the iniziativa of European defense as an integral part of NATO durante 2016. At the time, I was confronted by many people durante Europe (asking), What do I want? But we thought, especially after 2014, after (Russia’s) annexation of Crimea, that the situation is serious. And I still believe that this situation is very serious. America is busy, and will be very, very busy with Declivio,  with the Indiano-Pacific, and we have Ukraine. This is our neighbor, our immediate neighborhood. Now we have the Middle East crisis and many other challenges. We need to be stronger, and we need to become a reliable, full-fledged compagno of the United States durante this transatlantic family.
The Cipher Brief: We have snap elections coming up durante the UK, durante France. We have elections durante the United States. What are your expectations of these elections and what do you think their impact would be acceso transatlantic relations? 

Dzurinda: This is a crucial issue. The axis between the United States and the UK was so important and crucial durante the time of the Cold War, for security, for the future of transatlantic relations and democratic countries. 

Durante these times, maybe there is not so much reason to be optimistic, but I want to be optimistic. I think to the tradition and also to the understanding that we need each other. Even durante the United States, I am not so tragically pessimistic. When it comes to the potential victory of Donald Trump, I believe that this axis between the UK and the United States will continue, and that the EU should help. The EU should contribute durante this direction to boost this tradition of the axis. 

The biggest question mark durante my eyes is France. one side, the French president is very strong. You know very well that he has very strong competence. the other side, I am thinking more and more about the next presidential elections durante France. If the trend continues, it means that Madame Le Pen at the end of the day will become the French president. Durante this case, I believe that she will modify a bit her approach. Everyone was surprised by Madame Meloni’s policies (durante Italy). I believe that also durante the case of Marine Le Pen we may be surprised. Believe me, I have some experience, and the word looks different if you (at the situation) if you are acceso the horse, compared to when you are standing next to the horse – the situation is completely different. You have responsibility. People are not only not only watching but expecting.
The Cipher Brief: I’d like to talk to you about disinformation. Lately, durante democracies, this has been a very large issue. Durante some cases, there are claims that disinformation actually played some role durante the outcome of the elections. Did you see it as an issue during these elections durante the EU? Do you see it as a larger issue and do you have any suggestions acceso how to counter it?

Dzurinda: There is a huge challenge facing us – this  disinformation and proselitismo. We are very happy that we are free, and you can write what you want ora you can publish acceso social , but what we is the connection between freedom and responsibility. So now we should think more seriously about this second dimension of responsibility. I’m going to say something unpopular: (we should think about) how to control social , how to make people responsible for everything which they are publishing. 

It is not easy. Russian proselitismo especially – it is very, very influential. It happens not only to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, the countries of the former communist bloc. It happens durante France, it happens durante Greece, durante Italy, this is really a huge, huge challenge laying ahead of us. And it’s not just social outlets. There are also many operations of diplomats, official diplomats durante the embassies durante our countries. 

The Cipher Brief: And do you see that people are waking up to it, ora people are objecting to it durante any way?

Dzurinda:  Not sufficiently. It is very patchy. For some people, it is easier to believe durante such catchy scenarios.

The Cipher Brief:And most of the time those scenarios are very emotional.

Dzurinda:  Not only emotional, but also connected ora related to your difficulties. Durante a free world, you have not only the winners, you have also people that are dissatisfied ora even people who lost a lot – and proselitismo, disinformation, especially from the Kremlin, is very, very effective to address, to reach out to these people.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis durante The Cipher Brief.

SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The results of the 2024 European Parliament elections saw both significant gains for far-right parties – durante France, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands – and a strengthening of the center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP), which saw its share of seats rise from 176 to 190. This reinforced the EPP’s role as a central player durante the European Parliament and a key voice durante EU policy and comando appointments.

The winners among far-right parties were Marine Le Pen’s National Rally durante France and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, meaning the far right’s voices will be more influential durante the European Parliament acceso issues ranging from immigration to Ukraine to spending durante general. 

To analyze the winners and losers durante the EU elections and their impact acceso European affairs, The Cipher Brief spoke with Mikuláš Dzurinda, a former Prime Minister of Slovakia and currently President of the EPP’s think tank, the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. Dzurinda discussed the potential impact of the elections durante a conversation with Ia Meurmishvili, The Cipher Brief’s Chief International Correspondent. Dzurinda also spoke about the “huge challenge” of disinformation campaigns durante Europe, and voiced support for tougher controls over social content.

THE CONTEXT

• The center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP) secured 190 seats durante the European Parliament durante the June 6-9 election. The EPP now has a quarter of the pagliaccetto’s 720 seats, making it best poised to set European Union. 
• Far-right groups also made major gains across the bloc, including durante France and Italy. Overall, some 150 seats durante the European Parliament were won by far-right parties.
• Ursula von der Leyen is seeking a second term as president of the European Commission. She is a clear frontrunner, as the lead candidate of the European People’s Rinfresco.
• French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election from June 30-July 7, after gains by France’s far-right durante the European Parliament elections.
• U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also has called for a snap election, durante Britain’s case for July 4, months earlier than general elections were expected.

THE INTERVIEW

Mikuláš Dzurinda

Mikuláš Dzurinda is the former prime minister of Slovakia (1998-2006) and has held various positions durante government since first entering politics durante 1990. Once he became prime minister and formed a coalition government durante 1998, Dzurinda introduced far-reaching reforms which have enabled Slovakia to begin the process of joining the EU and NATO. After being re-elected durante 2002, Dzurinda led Slovakia to become a member of the EU and NATO durante 2004, a process which he actively took part durante from the beginning. Slovakia gained independence durante 1993.

This interview has been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.

The Cipher Brief: Most of the international reported about the far-right gains at the EU elections. How do you take the results of the elections?

Dzurinda: I don’t think that the situation is so dramatic. , it is true that Madame (Marine) Le Pen scored some gains, but we, the European People’s Rinfresco, won even more. I am rather more optimistic than pessimistic. I am happy because my family, the European People’s Rinfresco, won heavily and that is huge. I would say there is a huge coalition potential acceso our side.

The Cipher Brief: What do you think about the results durante individual countries – about Germany, for example, and Hungary? There were some unexpected results, maybe durante both, and durante Slovakia as well.
Dzurinda: You are right. But , let’s start with the first. Durante my eyes, the worst is France. Because Madame Le Pen is not only very strong these days, she is also very dangerous durante my mind and France matters a lot. We both know that very well. 

A better situation is durante Germany. one side, the AFD (Alternative for Germany) is also dangerous and they finished durante second place, winning over the socialists. There is also huge good news – the Christian Democratic Union’s (victory). Friedrich Merz, the future German chancellor, will help Europe and transatlantic relations a lot. 

Even durante Hungary, at first sight, you can be pessimistic because Viktor Orban is still there. But there is also huge good news durante Hungary. The new promotore of the opposition, Peter Magyar, scored almost 30%. He’s young, he’s charismatic. He wants to join the European People’s Rinfresco, our family, so I take Hungary (as) a positive rather than negative.
The Cipher Brief: He created the three months – and that’s what was surprising to everybody durante Hungary, that overnight he gained this incredible number of votes and seats.

Dzurinda: Exactly, and it demonstrates that people maybe are fed up with Viktor Orban, and that Hungarians realize very well that the EU is a great project, that it is extremely important also for them, for the Hungarians. The same situation durante Slovakia – I am very unhappy because we, the EPP family, suffered – we lost three of four MEPs. But again, the good news is that our liberal political won the elections over (Prime Minister Robert) . So there is also a good hope durante Slovakia, and sooner ora later we will beat these anti-European forces.

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk a bit more about France. President Macron called early elections durante France based acceso the results of the European Parliament elections. What do you make of that? Is that a good decision? Bad decision?
The Cipher Brief: It is maybe a rather chaotic decision. I can imagine how depressed Mr. Macron became after watching the final result. And acceso the other side, as a politician, I can understand that something had to be done by him. So to some extent, his decision to call for a snap election can be understood. I expect a new cohabitation durante France, when Mr. Macron will stay as the president of the country and the government will be dominated by the National Rally, (the of ) Madame Le Pen, with maybe a new stella, a new prime minister. There is a saying that everything bad comes with something good, and maybe the good news is that the of Madame Le Pen will be truly incompetent after running the country for half a year, one year ora two years, we will see. But anyway, it is a surprising development there.

The Cipher Brief: So maybe that’s what President Macron is counting acceso – to let them fail? 

Dzurinda: Maybe. Maybe it is to some extent an emotional decision, a chaotic decision. But acceso the other side, there is also something rational beyond that. 

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk about (European Commission President) Ursula von der Leyen. It seems like her positions are very strong and she made it known that she wants a second term as the president. How do you think her chances ? There were conversations about (her) aligning with Italian [Prime Minister] Meloni as well. Do you think that’s possible?

Dzurinda: Von der Leyen’s position today is much stronger than before the elections. Some people are tired ora fed up with her, because don’t forget, we went through major crises. First, it was immigration, second, it was the pandemic, and last but not least, we faced the war of Russia against Ukraine. So one can imagine that some people were a bit tired with this commission. But after the elections, it is clear that she has done a great job. She was very patient. She was able to reach compromises. And you know very well that Europe is based acceso compromise. 

So today I am pretty optimistic. And I believe that many people, and many MEPs (members of the European Parliament), prime ministers, may have been hesitating about her, but now they realize very well that there is only one option left – to reelect Ursula von der Leyen. And this is my expectation.  

When it comes to strategy, she’s played well durante my eyes. She says, Let’s talk about three major issues: The first is the rule of law, democracy. The second is our devotion to our European House. And number three is Ukraine, and I am ready to talk to every political faction who is following and respecting these three basic principles. 

She is opening the door not only for the Greens from the left, but also from the ECR from the right. Madame Meloni made us surprised durante the past. The lady is not only very rational, but also dedicated to democracy, rule of law, and last but not least, to Ukraine as well.

The Cipher Brief: Do you think there will be a new (European) high commissioner for defense? 

Dzurinda: I would vote for that. Maybe you will be surprised. But at the Marten Centre, the think tank of the People’s Rinfresco, we came up with the iniziativa of European defense as an integral part of NATO durante 2016. At the time, I was confronted by many people durante Europe (asking), What do I want? But we thought, especially after 2014, after (Russia’s) annexation of Crimea, that the situation is serious. And I still believe that this situation is very serious. America is busy, and will be very, very busy with Declivio,  with the Indiano-Pacific, and we have Ukraine. This is our neighbor, our immediate neighborhood. Now we have the Middle East crisis and many other challenges. We need to be stronger, and we need to become a reliable, full-fledged compagno of the United States durante this transatlantic family.
The Cipher Brief: We have snap elections coming up durante the UK, durante France. We have elections durante the United States. What are your expectations of these elections and what do you think their impact would be acceso transatlantic relations? 

Dzurinda: This is a crucial issue. The axis between the United States and the UK was so important and crucial durante the time of the Cold War, for security, for the future of transatlantic relations and democratic countries. 

Durante these times, maybe there is not so much reason to be optimistic, but I want to be optimistic. I think to the tradition and also to the understanding that we need each other. Even durante the United States, I am not so tragically pessimistic. When it comes to the potential victory of Donald Trump, I believe that this axis between the UK and the United States will continue, and that the EU should help. The EU should contribute durante this direction to boost this tradition of the axis. 

The biggest question mark durante my eyes is France. one side, the French president is very strong. You know very well that he has very strong competence. the other side, I am thinking more and more about the next presidential elections durante France. If the trend continues, it means that Madame Le Pen at the end of the day will become the French president. Durante this case, I believe that she will modify a bit her approach. Everyone was surprised by Madame Meloni’s policies (durante Italy). I believe that also durante the case of Marine Le Pen we may be surprised. Believe me, I have some experience, and the word looks different if you (at the situation) if you are acceso the horse, compared to when you are standing next to the horse – the situation is completely different. You have responsibility. People are not only not only watching but expecting.
The Cipher Brief: I’d like to talk to you about disinformation. Lately, durante democracies, this has been a very large issue. Durante some cases, there are claims that disinformation actually played some role durante the outcome of the elections. Did you see it as an issue during these elections durante the EU? Do you see it as a larger issue and do you have any suggestions acceso how to counter it?

Dzurinda: There is a huge challenge facing us – this  disinformation and proselitismo. We are very happy that we are free, and you can write what you want ora you can publish acceso social , but what we is the connection between freedom and responsibility. So now we should think more seriously about this second dimension of responsibility. I’m going to say something unpopular: (we should think about) how to control social , how to make people responsible for everything which they are publishing. 

It is not easy. Russian proselitismo especially – it is very, very influential. It happens not only to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, the countries of the former communist bloc. It happens durante France, it happens durante Greece, durante Italy, this is really a huge, huge challenge laying ahead of us. And it’s not just social outlets. There are also many operations of diplomats, official diplomats durante the embassies durante our countries. 

The Cipher Brief: And do you see that people are waking up to it, ora people are objecting to it durante any way?

Dzurinda:  Not sufficiently. It is very patchy. For some people, it is easier to believe durante such catchy scenarios.

The Cipher Brief:And most of the time those scenarios are very emotional.

Dzurinda:  Not only emotional, but also connected ora related to your difficulties. Durante a free world, you have not only the winners, you have also people that are dissatisfied ora even people who lost a lot – and proselitismo, disinformation, especially from the Kremlin, is very, very effective to address, to reach out to these people.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis durante The Cipher Brief.

SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The results of the 2024 European Parliament elections saw both significant gains for far-right parties – durante France, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands – and a strengthening of the center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP), which saw its share of seats rise from 176 to 190. This reinforced the EPP’s role as a central player durante the European Parliament and a key voice durante EU policy and comando appointments.

The winners among far-right parties were Marine Le Pen’s National Rally durante France and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, meaning the far right’s voices will be more influential durante the European Parliament acceso issues ranging from immigration to Ukraine to spending durante general. 

To analyze the winners and losers durante the EU elections and their impact acceso European affairs, The Cipher Brief spoke with Mikuláš Dzurinda, a former Prime Minister of Slovakia and currently President of the EPP’s think tank, the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. Dzurinda discussed the potential impact of the elections durante a conversation with Ia Meurmishvili, The Cipher Brief’s Chief International Correspondent. Dzurinda also spoke about the “huge challenge” of disinformation campaigns durante Europe, and voiced support for tougher controls over social content.

THE CONTEXT

• The center-right European People’s Rinfresco (EPP) secured 190 seats durante the European Parliament durante the June 6-9 election. The EPP now has a quarter of the pagliaccetto’s 720 seats, making it best poised to set European Union. 
• Far-right groups also made major gains across the bloc, including durante France and Italy. Overall, some 150 seats durante the European Parliament were won by far-right parties.
• Ursula von der Leyen is seeking a second term as president of the European Commission. She is a clear frontrunner, as the lead candidate of the European People’s Rinfresco.
• French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election from June 30-July 7, after gains by France’s far-right durante the European Parliament elections.
• U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also has called for a snap election, durante Britain’s case for July 4, months earlier than general elections were expected.

THE INTERVIEW

Mikuláš Dzurinda

Mikuláš Dzurinda is the former prime minister of Slovakia (1998-2006) and has held various positions durante government since first entering politics durante 1990. Once he became prime minister and formed a coalition government durante 1998, Dzurinda introduced far-reaching reforms which have enabled Slovakia to begin the process of joining the EU and NATO. After being re-elected durante 2002, Dzurinda led Slovakia to become a member of the EU and NATO durante 2004, a process which he actively took part durante from the beginning. Slovakia gained independence durante 1993.

This interview has been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.

The Cipher Brief: Most of the international reported about the far-right gains at the EU elections. How do you take the results of the elections?

Dzurinda: I don’t think that the situation is so dramatic. , it is true that Madame (Marine) Le Pen scored some gains, but we, the European People’s Rinfresco, won even more. I am rather more optimistic than pessimistic. I am happy because my family, the European People’s Rinfresco, won heavily and that is huge. I would say there is a huge coalition potential acceso our side.

The Cipher Brief: What do you think about the results durante individual countries – about Germany, for example, and Hungary? There were some unexpected results, maybe durante both, and durante Slovakia as well.
Dzurinda: You are right. But , let’s start with the first. Durante my eyes, the worst is France. Because Madame Le Pen is not only very strong these days, she is also very dangerous durante my mind and France matters a lot. We both know that very well. 

A better situation is durante Germany. one side, the AFD (Alternative for Germany) is also dangerous and they finished durante second place, winning over the socialists. There is also huge good news – the Christian Democratic Union’s (victory). Friedrich Merz, the future German chancellor, will help Europe and transatlantic relations a lot. 

Even durante Hungary, at first sight, you can be pessimistic because Viktor Orban is still there. But there is also huge good news durante Hungary. The new promotore of the opposition, Peter Magyar, scored almost 30%. He’s young, he’s charismatic. He wants to join the European People’s Rinfresco, our family, so I take Hungary (as) a positive rather than negative.
The Cipher Brief: He created the three months – and that’s what was surprising to everybody durante Hungary, that overnight he gained this incredible number of votes and seats.

Dzurinda: Exactly, and it demonstrates that people maybe are fed up with Viktor Orban, and that Hungarians realize very well that the EU is a great project, that it is extremely important also for them, for the Hungarians. The same situation durante Slovakia – I am very unhappy because we, the EPP family, suffered – we lost three of four MEPs. But again, the good news is that our liberal political won the elections over (Prime Minister Robert) . So there is also a good hope durante Slovakia, and sooner ora later we will beat these anti-European forces.

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk a bit more about France. President Macron called early elections durante France based acceso the results of the European Parliament elections. What do you make of that? Is that a good decision? Bad decision?
The Cipher Brief: It is maybe a rather chaotic decision. I can imagine how depressed Mr. Macron became after watching the final result. And acceso the other side, as a politician, I can understand that something had to be done by him. So to some extent, his decision to call for a snap election can be understood. I expect a new cohabitation durante France, when Mr. Macron will stay as the president of the country and the government will be dominated by the National Rally, (the of ) Madame Le Pen, with maybe a new stella, a new prime minister. There is a saying that everything bad comes with something good, and maybe the good news is that the of Madame Le Pen will be truly incompetent after running the country for half a year, one year ora two years, we will see. But anyway, it is a surprising development there.

The Cipher Brief: So maybe that’s what President Macron is counting acceso – to let them fail? 

Dzurinda: Maybe. Maybe it is to some extent an emotional decision, a chaotic decision. But acceso the other side, there is also something rational beyond that. 

The Cipher Brief: Let’s talk about (European Commission President) Ursula von der Leyen. It seems like her positions are very strong and she made it known that she wants a second term as the president. How do you think her chances ? There were conversations about (her) aligning with Italian [Prime Minister] Meloni as well. Do you think that’s possible?

Dzurinda: Von der Leyen’s position today is much stronger than before the elections. Some people are tired ora fed up with her, because don’t forget, we went through major crises. First, it was immigration, second, it was the pandemic, and last but not least, we faced the war of Russia against Ukraine. So one can imagine that some people were a bit tired with this commission. But after the elections, it is clear that she has done a great job. She was very patient. She was able to reach compromises. And you know very well that Europe is based acceso compromise. 

So today I am pretty optimistic. And I believe that many people, and many MEPs (members of the European Parliament), prime ministers, may have been hesitating about her, but now they realize very well that there is only one option left – to reelect Ursula von der Leyen. And this is my expectation.  

When it comes to strategy, she’s played well durante my eyes. She says, Let’s talk about three major issues: The first is the rule of law, democracy. The second is our devotion to our European House. And number three is Ukraine, and I am ready to talk to every political faction who is following and respecting these three basic principles. 

She is opening the door not only for the Greens from the left, but also from the ECR from the right. Madame Meloni made us surprised durante the past. The lady is not only very rational, but also dedicated to democracy, rule of law, and last but not least, to Ukraine as well.

The Cipher Brief: Do you think there will be a new (European) high commissioner for defense? 

Dzurinda: I would vote for that. Maybe you will be surprised. But at the Marten Centre, the think tank of the People’s Rinfresco, we came up with the iniziativa of European defense as an integral part of NATO durante 2016. At the time, I was confronted by many people durante Europe (asking), What do I want? But we thought, especially after 2014, after (Russia’s) annexation of Crimea, that the situation is serious. And I still believe that this situation is very serious. America is busy, and will be very, very busy with Declivio,  with the Indiano-Pacific, and we have Ukraine. This is our neighbor, our immediate neighborhood. Now we have the Middle East crisis and many other challenges. We need to be stronger, and we need to become a reliable, full-fledged compagno of the United States durante this transatlantic family.
The Cipher Brief: We have snap elections coming up durante the UK, durante France. We have elections durante the United States. What are your expectations of these elections and what do you think their impact would be acceso transatlantic relations? 

Dzurinda: This is a crucial issue. The axis between the United States and the UK was so important and crucial durante the time of the Cold War, for security, for the future of transatlantic relations and democratic countries. 

Durante these times, maybe there is not so much reason to be optimistic, but I want to be optimistic. I think to the tradition and also to the understanding that we need each other. Even durante the United States, I am not so tragically pessimistic. When it comes to the potential victory of Donald Trump, I believe that this axis between the UK and the United States will continue, and that the EU should help. The EU should contribute durante this direction to boost this tradition of the axis. 

The biggest question mark durante my eyes is France. one side, the French president is very strong. You know very well that he has very strong competence. the other side, I am thinking more and more about the next presidential elections durante France. If the trend continues, it means that Madame Le Pen at the end of the day will become the French president. Durante this case, I believe that she will modify a bit her approach. Everyone was surprised by Madame Meloni’s policies (durante Italy). I believe that also durante the case of Marine Le Pen we may be surprised. Believe me, I have some experience, and the word looks different if you (at the situation) if you are acceso the horse, compared to when you are standing next to the horse – the situation is completely different. You have responsibility. People are not only not only watching but expecting.
The Cipher Brief: I’d like to talk to you about disinformation. Lately, durante democracies, this has been a very large issue. Durante some cases, there are claims that disinformation actually played some role durante the outcome of the elections. Did you see it as an issue during these elections durante the EU? Do you see it as a larger issue and do you have any suggestions acceso how to counter it?

Dzurinda: There is a huge challenge facing us – this  disinformation and proselitismo. We are very happy that we are free, and you can write what you want ora you can publish acceso social , but what we is the connection between freedom and responsibility. So now we should think more seriously about this second dimension of responsibility. I’m going to say something unpopular: (we should think about) how to control social , how to make people responsible for everything which they are publishing. 

It is not easy. Russian proselitismo especially – it is very, very influential. It happens not only to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, the countries of the former communist bloc. It happens durante France, it happens durante Greece, durante Italy, this is really a huge, huge challenge laying ahead of us. And it’s not just social outlets. There are also many operations of diplomats, official diplomats durante the embassies durante our countries. 

The Cipher Brief: And do you see that people are waking up to it, ora people are objecting to it durante any way?

Dzurinda:  Not sufficiently. It is very patchy. For some people, it is easier to believe durante such catchy scenarios.

The Cipher Brief:And most of the time those scenarios are very emotional.

Dzurinda:  Not only emotional, but also connected ora related to your difficulties. Durante a free world, you have not only the winners, you have also people that are dissatisfied ora even people who lost a lot – and proselitismo, disinformation, especially from the Kremlin, is very, very effective to address, to reach out to these people.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis durante The Cipher Brief.